Walls Work; Withdrawal Works
(via Backspin)
Whether they are just, popular, legal or politically sensible is another matter entirely, but there is no longer denying that, in the practical sense of preventing terrorism against Israelis, the policies have been remarkably effective — far more so that I expected.
I would imagine that most people would be similarly surprised to hear that the number of Israelis killed by terrorists is down 90%, and the number killed by suicide bombs down 95% in just four years.
The question is whether a military withdrawal from the West Bank will have a similar effect. Most suicide bombings have always come from the West Bank, not Gaza, hence the efficacy of the wall. But the wall alone would probably not provide adequate protection. Whatever the political and moral costs, the most effective way the IDF has to prevent and disrupt Palestinian terror attacks is by tightly controlling the movements of the Palestinian population in the West Bank. Granted, an Israeli withdrawal could set off another power struggle between Hamas and Fatah, as it has done in Gaza, meaning that Palestinian terrorists might spend more time trying to kill each other than Israeli citizens. Whether the security benefit of this hypothetical civil strife would be greater than that provided by Israeli troops and checkpoints on the ground I don't know. But either way, Israel could do itself and everyone else a favor by dismantling the bulk of civilian settlements beyond the Green Line.
Posted by: Hasdai on January 30, 2007 12:30 PM | permalink"But either way, Israel could do itself and everyone else a favor by dismantling the bulk of civilian settlements beyond the Green Line."
I don't disagree with that.
In any case, the gist of this post is that I don't think the success of the West Bank wall was a foregone conclusion. I, myself, was a bit skeptical, given the Gaza-Egypt tunnels and the popularity of Qassam rockets and the like. I guess I was wrong.
Posted by: Joe Grossberg on January 30, 2007 12:47 PM | permalinkWalls like this are analogous to duct tape over a hole in an inflatable raft or perfuming yourself instead of bathing. Both give nice results for the near future, but in the long run, you need to solve the real problem.
If they are simultaneously going at the root of the issue, then this should work. If not, let me be the first to predict their fuckedness.
Posted by: Od*ll on January 30, 2007 1:52 PM | permalinkWell, I suppose it depends on what you consider the Israelis' problem. It's easy for us, sitting here in the US, to say that it's "finding a lasting, peaceful solution to satisfy both nations' interests" but, when you have a suicide bombing every week and no credible partner for peace, unilateral defensive actions -- like withdrawing from Gaza or building a wall -- seem pretty sensible.
Posted by: Joe Grossberg on January 30, 2007 3:07 PM | permalinkI hope you're right, and honestly, I don't follow Israeli politics closely enough to know how I feel about the wall. Still, I think there are other factors at work here in addition to the wall. Possibly changes in leadership among the Palestinians is a factor in the decline of terrorism as well. Or, if in fact terrorist funding is all connected as our president would like you to believe, maybe funding has been diverted to the terrorists in Iraq and Lebanon. That last statement was probably really dumb and way off base, but hey, I'm brainstorming here.
Posted by: Justin on January 30, 2007 5:15 PM | permalinkThis reminds me of Scott Adams's blog entry on fences:
http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2006/11/fences.html
As the old saying goes, "Fences make good neighbors."
Suspending disbelief for a minute, that fence would serve an additional purpose: keeping non-Iraqi jihadis *out*.
Posted by: Joe Grossberg on January 31, 2007 8:24 AM | permalinkNo more comments! Either someone has violated Godwin's Law, I'm tired of the discussion or, most likely, the ten-week window has closed. You can, however, contact me through email.
