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Not That Warm and Not That Soon

Feb 24, 2004 4:57 PM
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Upon hearing of a recently leaked Pentagon report that claimed the UK would resemble Siberia in 16 years, I immediately discounted it as absurd.

I'm not an ardent environmentalist by any means, but there a pretty solid consensus among scientists that global warming is a real phenomenon and it's accelerated by a net increase of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, mostly due to human pollution.

However, they're talking a few degrees per century, not per year.

Turns out my hunch was right: the report was unclassified, not leaked; it was covered by Fortune over a month ago, and not a new revelation; and it was a described as a possible worst-case scenario worth thinking about, not a likely one.

The Oakland Tribune is critical of the sensationalist coverage.

Funniest quote:

"The leak promises to draw angry attention to U.S. environmental and military policies," the Arab news outlet Al-Jazeera reported on its Web site.

That's funny, but aren't the gulf states the ones supplying us with those earth-destroying fossil fuels? It's akin to McDonald's complaining about all the fat-asses they see.

(via BoingBoing)


Comments: Not That Warm and Not That Soon

Don't underestimate the change of just a few degrees. Already, a lot of glaciers and other ice bodies are becoming unstable:

"between 1989 and 2000, Mount Kilimanjaro lost 33 per cent of its ice field. He projects that it could disappear entirely within the next 15 years..."

So, while those few degrees seem like nothing where you are, it makes a huge difference in some places, especially near the poles. And in climatology, the saying "what goes around comes around" holds great truth.

Posted by: O'dell on February 24, 2004 6:29 PM | permalink

Note also that the report's presenting an extreme case, using the limits of scientific prediction. It's not complete fantasy though.

Posted by: Richard Jones on February 24, 2004 7:19 PM | permalink

(a point that Joe clearly makes in his post :)

Posted by: Richard Jones on February 24, 2004 7:23 PM | permalink

I should have cited my source... I didn't get that from the story Joe posted. It's from a real report of what has happened.

Posted by: O'dell on February 24, 2004 9:02 PM | permalink

Woods Hole has some good stuff on abrupt climate change.
This was prsented at Davos.
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/climatechange_wef.html

This has several documents about this.
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm

berkeyatcsidotcom

Posted by: Bob Berkey on February 26, 2004 12:10 AM | permalink

No more comments! Either someone has violated Godwin's Law, I'm tired of the discussion or, most likely, the ten-week window has closed. You can, however, contact me through email.